EGU22-11411, updated on 11 Apr 2024
EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Towards the improvement of EOP prediction: first results of the 2nd EOP PCC

Sadegh Modiri1, Daniela Thaller1, Santiago Belda2, Sonia Guessoum2, Jose M Ferrandiz2, Shrishail Raut3,4, Sujata Dhar3, Robert Heinkelmann3, and Harald Schuh3,4
Sadegh Modiri et al.
  • 1Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy, Geodesy, Frankfurt am Main, Germany (
  • 2University of Alicante, Alicante, Spain
  • 3GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
  • 4Technische Universität Berlin, Institute for Geodesy and Geoinformation Science, Berlin, Germany

The real-time Earth orientation parameters (EOP) estimation is needed for many applications, including precise tracking and navigation of interplanetary spacecraft, climate forecasting, and disaster prevention. However, the complexity and time-consuming data processing always lead to time delays. Accordingly, several methods were developed and applied for the EOP prediction. However, the accuracy of EOP prediction is still not satisfactory even for prediction of just a few days in the future. Therefore, new methods or a combination of the existing approaches can be investigated to improve the predicted EOP. To assess the various EOP prediction capabilities, the international Earth rotation and reference systems service (IERS) established the working group on the 2nd Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC).
Our EOP prediction team provides the full set of EOP predictions weekly for one year ahead. The SSA+Copula method and the empirical free core nutation (FCN) model (named B16) are used for Earth rotation parameters and celestial pole offsets (CPO) prediction, respectively. 
Our preliminary results illustrate an improvement in EOP prediction compared to the current EOP prediction methods, especially on CPO. Additionally, the comparison with other method results indicates that the proposed techniques can efficiently and precisely predict the EOP at different terms (short, mid, and long term).

How to cite: Modiri, S., Thaller, D., Belda, S., Guessoum, S., Ferrandiz, J. M., Raut, S., Dhar, S., Heinkelmann, R., and Schuh, H.: Towards the improvement of EOP prediction: first results of the 2nd EOP PCC, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11411,, 2022.


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