Compound events in Germany: drivers and case studies
- 1Center for international Development and Environmental Research, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Giessen, Germany (Florian.Ellsaesser@zeu.uni-giessen.de)
- 2Department of Geography, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Giessen, Germany (elena.xoplaki@geogr.uni-giessen.de)
- *A full list of authors appears at the end of the abstract
The 2018 compound of hot and dry conditions in Central Europe are unprecedented in magnitude, duration and spatial extent since measurements started in 1881. During spring and summer, these compounding of extreme conditions caused a series of severe impacts on several sectors including agriculture, forestry, transport, energy and water supply. At the beginning of the same year, windstorm Friederike concurrent with heavy snowfall caused severe damages in Ireland, Great Britain, northern France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Czech Republic and Poland. Friederike reached wind gusts of the order of 100 – 150 km/h, up to 173 km/h at Sněžka in Czech Republic and 203 km/h at Brocken in Germany.
Along the trajectory from large to the local scale, the drivers and dynamics of these events are analyzed and the impacts of the compound events are provided. Exemplary for 2018, the impacts of the compound events comprise traffic disruption, power outages, property damage by e.g., falling trees, and fatalities after the windstorm. Unprecedented winter wheat yield reductions were observed as well after the hot and dry spring and summer growing season. The impact of the drought and heat wave compound further facilitated the outbreak of bark beetle in 2018 and the following years, as a cumulative hazard and increased the probability of a dry surface water anomaly to an unexpected 68 %.
Taking advantage of the transdisciplinary research and gathered expertise in the frame of the coordinated German ClimXtreme project network (www.climxtreme.net), we analyze and characterize these 2018 events that link with severe impacts in Germany and neighboring countries in Central Europe. We focus on two key storylines with respect to the selected case studies of compound wind & rain and drought & heat. We provide a detailed overview of the data, methods and approaches used, the scales and aspects involved as well as the events’ drivers/dynamics and their multi-sectorial impacts. We finally demonstrate the importance of considering the various facets of the compound nature of extremes and respond to timely research questions that the ClimXtreme research network addresses, such as: attribution of changing compound events to climate change, understanding the variability of clustered storms, understanding the role of decadal variations on compound heat metrics, understanding and predicting the effects of climate change on landslides, analysis of past and future changes in the frequencies of compound events.
Markus Augenstein (Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany); Hendrik Feldmann (Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany); Petra Friederichs (Institute of Geosciences, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany); Daniel Gliksman (Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany); Laura Goulier (Research Centre Jülich, Jülich, Germany); Jens Grieger (Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universitaet Berlin, Berlin, Germany); Jens Heinke (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany); Lisa Jach (University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany); Stefan Kollet (Research Centre Jülich, Jülich, Germany); Kai Kornhuber (Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, US; Lamont-Doherty Earth observatory, Columbia University, New York, US); Hilke Lentink (Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany); Susanna Mohr (Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany); Christoph Mudersbach (Hochschule Bochum, Bochum, Germany); Katrin Nissen (Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany); Joaquim Pinto (Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany); Efi Rousi (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany); Lauren Seaby Andersen (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany); Felix Simon (Hochschule Bochum, Bochum, Germany); Laura Suárez Gutiérrez (Max Planck Institute für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany); Svenja Szemkus (Institute of Geosciences, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany); Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany); Kirsten Warrach-Sagi (University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany); Frederik Wolf (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany)
How to cite: Ellsäßer, F. and Xoplaki, E. and the The climXtreme research network on climate change and extreme events: Compound events in Germany: drivers and case studies, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11534, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11534, 2022.
