Glaciers and ice caps under climate change since the Little Ice Age

Mountain glaciers and ice caps are undergoing rapid mass loss but rates of contemporary change lack long-term (centennial-scale) context. Future projections of glacier changes require spin up to present day conditions and thus baseline ice extents and ice volumes are a prerequisite for model validation. Here, we reconstruct the Little Ice Age maximum glacier extent and ice surface of Jostedalsbreen, which is the largest ice mass in mainland Europe. Jostedalsbreen had its largest Little Ice Age (LIA) maximum about 1740 to 1860. The LIA ice-covered area was 568 km² and the LIA ice volume was between 61 km³ and 91 km³. We show that the major outlet glaciers have lost at least 110 km² or 19 % of their LIA area and 14 km³ or 18 % of their LIA volume until 2006. The largest proportional changes are associated with the loss of ice falls and consequent disconnection of tributaries. Glacier-specific hypsometry changes suggest a mean rise in ELA of 135 m but there is wide inter-glacier variability. A median date for the LIA of 1755 suggests that the long-term rate of ice mass loss has been 0.05 m w.e. a^-1. Comparison of that long-term rate of mass loss with our other published analyses of changes to mountain glaciers and ice caps since the LIA shows that Jostedalsbreen is unusual in not exhibiting an acceleration in mass loss since the LIA. Indeed, we have reported a 23 % acceleration of glacier mass loss in NE Greenland and a doubling for the Southern Alps of New Zealand. Others have reported a doubling of the rate of mass loss for the Vatnajökull ice cap and for Patagonia since the LIA. We have very recently reported a ten-fold increase for ~ 15,000 glaciers across the Himalaya. A synthesis of these long-term analyses reveals a latitudinal effect, regional climate effects and local controls on long-term glacier mass balance. For example, local rates of loss across the Himalaya were enhanced with the presence of surface debris cover (by 2 times vs clean-ice) and/or a proglacial lake (by 2.5 times vs land-terminating). Overall, we highlight the utility of geomorphological-based reconstructions of glaciers for understanding and quantifying long-term (centennial-scale) responses of mountain glaciers and ice caps to climate and hence for understanding of meltwater production and proglacial landscape evolution.