Synergizing earth observations and seasonal forecasts within an innovative climate index: the case of forage production in Italy

In the agriculture sector, climate-related economic losses have reached an average of €73 bn a year worldwide. It is, hence, of utmost importance to act now to build a climate-resilient agricultural system by forecasting the future climate risk and implementing adaptation actions. Agriculture insurance plays a crucial role in promoting the resilience of the agricultural sector to external shocks, as it covers the production and financial risks of farmers, and related shortfall risks of interconnected stakeholders throughout the food chain. For a climate-proof agriculture, the insurance industry needs to evolve. Offering traditional coverage is becoming insufficient, with climate change unfolding its impact on the severity and frequency of extreme events.

We present a climate service for monitoring and forecasting the climate risk on crop and livestock production tailored to the needs of insurers providing agricultural coverage. The climate service has been developed and validated within the ESA-funded project TERRA - climaTe sERvices for a Resilient Agriculture, thanks to the engagement of key stakeholders in the whole value chain. The service is a risk assessment and monitoring tool based on a climate-enhanced vulnerability index. Such an index seamlessly integrates satellite data, reanalysis products and seasonal forecasts. In particular, it combines the level-2 variables from sentinel 1, 2 and 3, available through the Copernicus Global Land Service, in a unified vulnerability index, that is integrated with the reanalysis products and seasonal forecasts available through the Climate Data Store of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. The climate-enhanced vulnerability index is applied to the specific case of forage production in Italy.