EGU22-12691, updated on 28 Mar 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12691
EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Ocean climate indices and Total Solar Irradiance: causality over the past few decades and revision of indices uncertainties 

Aleksandra Skakun and Dmitry Volobuev
Aleksandra Skakun and Dmitry Volobuev
  • The Central Astronomical Observatory at Pulkovo, St Petersburg, Russia (a_skakun@mail.ru)

Pearson’s correlation is usually used as a criterion for the presence or absence of a relationship between time series, but it is not always indicative for nonlinear systems like climate. Therefore, we implement one of the methods of nonlinear dynamics to detect connections in the Sun-climate system. Here we estimate the causal relationship between Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and Ocean climate indices over the past few decades using the method of conditional dispersions (Cenys et al., 1991). We use a conceptual ocean-atmosphere model (Jin, 1997) with TSI added as a forcing to calibrate the method. We show that the method provides expected results for connection between TSI and the model temperature. Premixing of Gaussian noise to model data leads to decrease of detectable causality with increase of noise amplitude, and the similar effect occurs in empirical data. Moreover, in the case of the empirical data, we show that the method can be used to independently estimate uncertainties of Ocean climate indices.

How to cite: Skakun, A. and Volobuev, D.: Ocean climate indices and Total Solar Irradiance: causality over the past few decades and revision of indices uncertainties , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12691, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12691, 2022.

Comments on the display material

to access the discussion