Mitigating the highest volcanic risk in the World: a multidisciplinary strategy for the Neapolitan area

The Neapolitan volcanic area is by far the highest volcanic risk one in the World, due to the presence of three active volcanic areas (Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, Ischia) with an extreme population density: three millions people live within 20 km from a possible volcanic vent. Volcanic risk in these areas is strictly associated to seismic risk, and to other secondary risks as landslides and flooding.

The mitigation of such an extreme risk can only be afforded by considering volcanological, as well as economical, urbanistic  and social issues. All these highly multidisciplinary aspects must be jointly recognized and shared by both volcanologists and decision makers, in a global, effective risk reduction policy.

We start considering the very high number of people living in the ‘red zones’ (the most risky areas, in terms of the actual emergency plans) of Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei, and the economic losses linked to a complete evacuation of these areas. We then demonstrate, from volcanological considerations, that evacuated people could not come back in the red zones in short times, but rather after years or decades, perhaps never again.From such basic considerations, we proceed to propose a multidisciplinary, effective mitigation strategy and emergency planning, which can significantly decrease the volcanic and associated risks in the area and to make effectively feasible and sustainable an evacuation, in case of high probability for an impending eruption. The proposed strategy also uses the most advanced Artificial Intelligence methodologies to plan an optimal, complete relocation of the population living in the most risky areas, in case of sudden as well as progressive evacuation. In addition, our mitigation strategy takes into account other key demographic and economic issues: problems affecting several internal areas of Southern Italy, which can help to handle the problem of risk mitigation, and to possibly jointly solve them.