EGU22-12989
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12989
EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Skillful Prediction of Barents Sea Phytoplankton Concentration

Filippa Fransner1, Marius Årthun1, Ingo Bethke1, François Counillon1,2, Annette Samuelsen2, Jerry Tjiputra3, Are Olsen1, and Noel Keenlyside1
Filippa Fransner et al.
  • 1Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
  • 2Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
  • 3NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway

The predictability of phytoplankton abundance in the Barents Sea is explored in the CMIP6 decadal prediction runs with the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM1), together with satellite data and in situ measurements. The model successfully predicts a maximum in the observed phytoplankton abundance in 2007 up to five years in advance, which is associated with a strong predictive skill of 2007 minimum extent of the summer sea ice concentration. The underlying mechanism is an event of anomalously high heat transport into the Barents Sea that is seen both in the model and in situ observations. These results are an important step towards marine ecosystem predictions.

How to cite: Fransner, F., Årthun, M., Bethke, I., Counillon, F., Samuelsen, A., Tjiputra, J., Olsen, A., and Keenlyside, N.: Skillful Prediction of Barents Sea Phytoplankton Concentration, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12989, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12989, 2022.