EGU General Assembly 2022
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The value of solar forecasting for energy-related applications: a treasure box of literature yet to be opened

Rodrigo Amaro e Silva and Hadrien Verbois
Rodrigo Amaro e Silva and Hadrien Verbois
  • O.I.E. Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy, MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University 06904 Sophia Antipolis, France

The solar forecasting literature is rich and diverse; to navigate it, practitioners can rely on review papers, or on recent papers’ introduction sections. In a considerable share of the literature, however, the focus is put almost exclusively on model design and statistical assessment aspects. The economic value of solar forecasting research, on the other hand, is seldom discussed. Looking, for example, at two prominent review works [1,2], only 5-10% of their references address this issue. However, it is important not to assume from this that there is a lack of research done on this topic.
The present work aims to share the preliminary results of the analysis of an abundant and diverse amount of literature addressing the economic value of solar forecasts for energy-related applications. The goal is to better understand how that value depends on the accuracy of a given forecasting model, and how much it varies from one application to another. It is also of relevance to discuss how researchers infer such value.

1. Notton, G.; Nivet, M.L.; Voyant, C.; Paoli, C.; Darras, C.; Motte, F.; Fouilloy, A. Intermittent and stochastic character of renewable energy sources: Consequences, cost of intermittence and benefit of forecasting. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 2018, 87, 96–105, doi:10.1016/j.rser.2018.02.007.
2. Antonanzas, J.; Osorio, N.; Escobar, R.; Urraca, R.; Martinez-de-pison, F.J.; Antonanzas-torres, F. Review of photovoltaic power forecasting. Sol. Energy 2016, 136, 78–111, doi:10.1016/j.solener.2016.06.069.

How to cite: Amaro e Silva, R. and Verbois, H.: The value of solar forecasting for energy-related applications: a treasure box of literature yet to be opened, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13264,, 2022.

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