Advanced seasonal predictions for vine management based on bioclimatic indicators tailored to the wine sector

To strengthen the seasonal forecast adoption on the vine management, this work introduces an observation-forecast blending approach to wine-sector indicators over the Iberian Peninsula. Five bioclimatic indicators (temperature and precipitation based) were considered as highly important from the perspective of wine-sector users, and the predictions were prepared for each month of the growing season by combining with previous observations as the indicator period progressed. The performance of this approach was then assessed, for each initialization date throughout the entire growing season, with Pearson’s correlation coefficient and Fair Ranked Probability Skill Score. The results show a marked increase in the skill metrics during the growing season from the early combinations for all the indicators. This progressive improvement of the forecasting skill provides the users with an opportunity to ponder anticipation and confidence when finding the best moment to make a specific decision and, thus, to improve their management. Meanwhile, the environmental impact could be reduced with the thoughtful application derived from the customised knowledge of climate information