EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Impact of volcanic eruptions in CMIP6 decadal prediction systems: a multi-model analysis

Roberto Bilbao1, Panos Athanasiadis2, Leon Hermanson3, Juliette Mignot4, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso5, Didier Swingedouw6, Xian Wu7, and Pablo Ortega1
Roberto Bilbao et al.
  • 1Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
  • 2Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy
  • 3Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK
  • 4Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentation et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN/IPSL), Paris, France
  • 5Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
  • 6Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux, Université de Bordeaux/CNRS, Bordeaux, France
  • 7National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, 80307, USA

In recent decades three major volcanic eruptions of different intensity have occurred: Mount Agung (1963), El Chichón (1982) and Mount Pinatubo (1991), with reported climate impacts on seasonal-to-decadal timescales and providing a high prediction potential. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project component C (DCPP-C) includes a protocol to investigate the impact of such volcanic eruptions on decadal prediction, which consists in performing initialised sets of predictions just before the three historical volcanic eruptions, but in which the volcanic aerosol forcing is excluded. The impact of the volcanic eruptions is therefore determined by comparing these new forecasts with those included in the corresponding retrospective prediction experiment DCPP-A, which include historical volcanic aerosol forcing. Here we present the results from six CMIP6 decadal prediction systems (CanESM5, CESM1, EC-Earth3, HadGEM3, IPSL-CM6A and CMCC-CM2-SR5). The global mean temperature cooling is comparable among models and consistent with previous studies. The surface temperature response pattern in the first years is similar across all the models and for the individual volcanic eruptions. At later forecast times (years 6-9), differences among the models and eruptions emerge. Preliminary results show that the volcanic eruptions impact the atmospheric and oceanic dynamics, as shown in previous studies, although some differences across models emerge, specifically on the ocean overturning and gyre circulation changes.

How to cite: Bilbao, R., Athanasiadis, P., Hermanson, L., Mignot, J., Sospedra-Alfonso, R., Swingedouw, D., Wu, X., and Ortega, P.: Impact of volcanic eruptions in CMIP6 decadal prediction systems: a multi-model analysis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13395,, 2022.