Impacts of the ENSO cycle on climate and coffee production in Colombia

Colombia is the world’s third largest coffee exporter. The high altitude and rich soils of Colombia’s mountains and valleys create ideal conditions for growing coffee plants. The coffee industry in Colombia mostly consists of small, family-owned farms, and provides many hundreds of thousands of jobs in rural areas. Climatic conditions during the growing season strongly influence the quality and overall yields of coffee beans. Links between the ENSO cycle and coffee production will be investigated. Additionally, coffee crops in Colombia face a variety of threats originating from climate change, including loss of quality and increased prevalence of pests (e.g., the coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei) and diseases (e.g., the coffee leaf rust, Hemileia vastatrix). High resolution climate data are needed to assess how the climate of the coffee growing areas could change and assist growers to adapt to these changes. The ability of three regional climate models (RCA4, RegCM4.3 and CRCM5) to reproduce observed teleconnections between the ENSO cycle and climate in coffee-growing areas of Colombia is also assessed. These regional climate model simulations were produced for the Coordinated Regional Dynamical Experiment (CORDEX) for the Central America, Caribbean, and Mexico (CAM) domain. They represent the highest resolution climate data available for Colombia. Projected changes in the ENSO cycle and possible impacts on coffee production will also be investigated. This study is believed to be the first to explicitly use the CAM-CORDEX results for Colombia.