Caldera subsidence during the Hunga-Tonga explosive eruption?

The Hunga-Tonga eruption culminated on January 15, 2022, with a high-intensity Plinian eruption exceeding 20 km height, tsunamis affecting local islands and the circumpacific region, locally air-coupled seismic surface waves recorded at teleseismic distances, and explosive shock waves that repeatedly travelled around the world. Hunga-Tonga is a flat-topped volcano that rises about 1700 m above the seafloor, hosting a submarine 3-4 km diameter caldera floor that lies at less than 200 m water depth and is surrounded by an elevated, approx. 100-200 m high caldera wall. Only small parts of the volcano are rising at the caldera wall above the sea level, such as the islands Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha'apai in the north and small unnamed rocks in the south. Satellite imagery acquired by Pleiades and Sentinel 1A suggests that during the January 15, 2022 eruption, the central part of the Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha'apai as well as the small rocks in the south disappeared. By analysing satellite radar and imagery, we constrain island perimeters and morphologies before and after the eruption, to find evidence for island subsidence and erosion. In addition, seismic data recorded during the January 15, 2022 eruption was analysed in the time and frequency domains, revealing high amplitude activity over ~1 hr. The comparison of seismic, GNSS and local tsunami recordings gives insights into the time-succession of the eruption. For instance, moment tensor inversion suggests that the largest amplitude seismic signal was produced by a dominant tensile non-double component, characteristic of volcanic explosions. Furthermore, we also found evidence for reverse polarity mechanisms in agreement with subsidence of a caldera, possibly indicating incremental activity of a ring fault. We discuss the possible contribution of a caldera to the evolving eruption dynamics and the need to improve geophysical monitoring of this island arc in general and acquire high-resolution submarine data Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha'apai in specific.