EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

The decreasing vulnerability of French crop production to climatic hazards

Bernhard Schauberger1,2, David Makowski3, Tamara Ben-Ari4, Julien Boé5, and Philippe Ciais6
Bernhard Schauberger et al.
  • 1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany (
  • 2University of Applied Sciences Weihenstephan-Triesdorf, Freising, Germany (
  • 3Université Paris-Saclay, AgroParisTech, INRAE, Unit Applied Mathematics and Computer Science (MIA 518), Paris, France
  • 4INRAE, AgroParisTech, UMR 211 Agronomie, Université Paris-Saclay, 78850 Thiverval-Grignon, France
  • 5CECI, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, CERFACS, Toulouse, France
  • 6Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), 91191 Gif sur Yvette, France

Recent adverse weather events in Europe have questioned the stability of crop production systems. We assessed the vulnerability of eleven major crops in France between 1959 and 2018 as a function of climate, crafting a novel hazard framework that combines exposure and sensitivity to weather-related hazards. Exposure was defined as the frequency of hazardous climate conditions, while sensitivity of crops was estimated by the yield response to single and compound hazards. We used reported yields available at departement (county) level. Vulnerability was computed as the exposure-weighted average of crop sensitivities. Our results do not reveal any historical evidence for an increased vulnerability of French crop production. Rather, the sensitivity to adverse weather events, and thus the overall vulnerability, has significantly decreased for six of the eleven crops between 1959 and 2018, and shown no significant decline or remained stable for the other five. Yet compound hazards can induce yield losses of 30% or more for several crops. Moreover, as heat-related hazards are projected to become more frequent with climate change, crop vulnerability may rise again in the future. Our results may support insurance design by identifying single and compound hazards that can severely affect yields.

How to cite: Schauberger, B., Makowski, D., Ben-Ari, T., Boé, J., and Ciais, P.: The decreasing vulnerability of French crop production to climatic hazards, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1498,, 2022.


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