Development of a first local landslide early warning system in Slovenia

The fact that Slovenia is highly exposed to landslides underlines the need for preventive measures to reduce the hazard associated with landslides. For this reason, in 2011 the Geological Survey of Slovenia (GeoZS) started developing the MASPREM system to predict landslides hazard due to increased rainfall at the national level.

In 2021, the MASPREM system was upgraded to a local landslide early warning system which was specifically developed for landslide-prone area in the hinterland of the settlement of Koroška Bela (Karavanke mountain, NW Slovenia). This area is known by numerous landslides, that represent the source area of a potential debris flows that could pose a threat to the settlement bellow. The triggering mechanisms behind this kind of landslides are related to various environmental conditions (e.g. geological conditions, tectonic settings, topography, etc.) and triggering factors such as prolonged and/or intense precipitation, changes in groundwater levels, erosion and earthquakes.

Since we cannot avoid the risk of landslides and have to adapt, it is important to understand and predict landslide behaviour. With the help of landslide monitoring early landslide activity can be detected and landslide impacts can be reduced.

To meet this need, we have implemented real-time geotechnical (extensometers), hydrometeorological (piezometers, rain gauges) and geodetic (GNSS antennas) sensors that enable temporal prediction of landslide dynamics. Based on analyses of monitoring data and reconstruction of previous event, threshold values (precipitation, displacements) were determined.

Additionally, we set up customised dashboards that allow access to all real-time monitoring sensors. In this way, GeoZS emergency service and stakeholders can access daily updated data presented on webpage at any time. In the future, we plan to upgrade the local warning system with emails alerts sent to registered users when determined threshold values will be exceeded.

Acknowledgement:  The research was funded by the Slovenian Research Agency (Research Program P1-0419, project Z1-2638, Infrastructure programme I0-0007), the Administration of the Republic of Slovenia for Civil Protection and Disaster Relief, the Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning, and the Municipality of Jesenice.