EGU22-1640
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1640
EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Past and predicted climate change impacts on heat-related child mortality in Africa

Sarah Chapman1, Cathryn E Birch1, John H Marsham1, Cherie Part2, Sari Kovats2, and Shakoor Hajat2
Sarah Chapman et al.
  • 1University of Leeds, Institute of Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, United Kingdom of Great Britain – England, Scotland, Wales (earsch@leeds.ac.uk)
  • 2Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom

Children (< 5 years) are highly vulnerable during hot weather, however the impacts of past and future warming on child mortality has never been estimated. Here, we use CMIP6 global climate models to quantify, for the first time, the heat-related child mortality that has already occurred (1995 – 2020) in Africa due to climate change, as well as estimate future burdens (2020 – 2050). By 2009, heat-related child mortality was already double what it would have been without climate change and outweighed any contributions from general improvements in development. Under a high emission scenario (SSP585) mortality will double by 2049 compared to 2005 - 2014. Mitigation will save lives; if 2050 temperature increases are kept to 1.5ºC, approx. 3900 – 6300 children could be saved annually in Africa compared to the SSP585 scenario. Our findings support the need for urgent mitigation and adaptation measures to save lives now and in the future.

How to cite: Chapman, S., Birch, C. E., Marsham, J. H., Part, C., Kovats, S., and Hajat, S.: Past and predicted climate change impacts on heat-related child mortality in Africa, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1640, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1640, 2022.

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