EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Representing socio-economic factors in INFERNO using the Human Development Index

Joao Teixeira1,2, Chantelle Burton1, Douglas I. Kelley3, Gerd Folberth1, Fiona M. O'Connor1, Richard Betts1,2, and Apostolos Voulgarakis4,5
Joao Teixeira et al.
  • 1Met Office, Fitzroy Road, EX1 3PB, Exeter, UK
  • 2College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
  • 3Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
  • 4Leverhulme Centre for Wildfires, Environment and Society, Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, UK
  • 5School of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete, Chania, Greece

INFERNO human fire ignitions and fire suppression functions excluded the representation of socio-economic factors (aside population density) that can affect anthropogenic behaviour regarding fire ignitions. To address this, we implement a socio-economic factor in the fire ignition and suppression parametrisation in INFERNO based on an Human Development Index (HDI) term. The HDI is calculated based on three indicators designed to capture the income, health, and education dimensions of human development. Therefore, we assume this leads to a representation where if there is more effort in improving human development, there is also investment on higher fire suppression by the population. Including this representation of socio-economic factors in INFERNO we were able to reduce large positive biases that were found for the regions of Temperate North America, Central America, Europe and Southern Hemisphere South America without significant impact to other regions, improving the model performance at a regional level and better representing processes that drive fire behaviour in the Earth System.

How to cite: Teixeira, J., Burton, C., Kelley, D. I., Folberth, G., O'Connor, F. M., Betts, R., and Voulgarakis, A.: Representing socio-economic factors in INFERNO using the Human Development Index, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1671,, 2022.