EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Impact of Atlantic multidecadal variability on North Atlantic tropical cyclones and extratropical transition

Alexander Baker1, Pier Luigi Vidale1, Malcolm Roberts2, Kevin Hodges1, Jon Seddon2, Etienne Tourigny3, Katja Lohmann4, Christopher Roberts5, and Laurent Terray6
Alexander Baker et al.
  • 1University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, Reading, United Kingdom of Great Britain – England, Scotland, Wales (
  • 2Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
  • 3Earth Sciences Department, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
  • 4Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany
  • 5European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, UK
  • 6Climat, Environnement, Couplages et Incertitudes, Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS), Toulouse, France

In the North Atlantic, approximately half of tropical cyclones undergo extratropical transition, and landfalling systems pose risks to populous midlatitude regions. The frequency of tropical-origin storms across the midlatitudes is projected to increase under anthropogenic climate change, but multi-model studies are required to help reduce uncertainties. One key uncertainty is the role of Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), a robust understanding of which will help contextualise projections. We assess the impacts AMV+ and AMV– on basin-wide tropical cyclone and extratropical transition activity in an ensemble of coupled sensitivity experiments from CMIP6 HighResMIP. We used objective methods—a Lagrangian feature-tracking algorithm and cyclone phase-space analysis—to identify tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition and present analysis of changes in cyclogenesis, tracks, and intensity in response to AMV forcing.

How to cite: Baker, A., Vidale, P. L., Roberts, M., Hodges, K., Seddon, J., Tourigny, E., Lohmann, K., Roberts, C., and Terray, L.: Impact of Atlantic multidecadal variability on North Atlantic tropical cyclones and extratropical transition, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2314,, 2022.