Assessing and Forecasting Dengue Risk with Hydrological Data

We introduce a methodology to assess and forecast the risk of mosquito-borne diseases using open hydrological and socio-economic data, with a specific focus on scalability, i.e. applicability to countries where limited data is available. We apply this methodology to assess and forecast the risk of dengue in the Philippines. We embedded this model into a full Early-Warning Early-Action system, which includes a web portal to convey the information to disaster managers and a set of pre-defined preventive actions, to mitigate the impact of potential outbreaks. This system has been developed in collaboration with the Philippines Red Cross, which is now adopting it.