EGU22-2852
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2852
EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments in Eastern Sicily (Italy) including sea level rise caused by climate change and local subduction effects. 

Anita Grezio1, Enrico Baglione1, Jacopo Selva1, Roberto Tonini2, Marco Anzidei2, and Antonio Vecchio3,4
Anita Grezio et al.
  • 1Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, Italy (anita.grezio@ingv.it)
  • 2Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma, Italy
  • 3Radboud Radio Lab, Department of Astrophysics/IMAPP–Radboud University, P.O. Box 9010, 6500 GL Nijmegen, The Netherlands
  • 4LESIA, Observatoire de Paris, Université PSL, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, Univ. Paris Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, 5 Place Jules Janssen, 92195 Meudon, France

The coasts of the Mediterranean Sea are densely populated and exposed to tsunami inundations as reported by historical evidence. Measures to mitigate the tsunami risk in this region are based on Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments (PTHA) computed considering present coastal morphologies. However, mean sea level projections for the 21st century indicated a general sea level rise which can be substantially modified if uplift or subsidence may occur locally due to other geological factors. In order to reduce the potential impact of tsunamis all factors (climatic or not) should be included in the tsunami hazard analysis. In this study we focus on the Eastern Sicily and we examine how the PTHA can significantly change when the general trend of sea level rise, based on AR-5 and AR-6 IPCC climate scenarios and rates of Vertical Land Movements, are included in the region. Moreover, we take into account associated epistemic uncertainties related to the future sea level rise under different conditions of low- and high-emission representative concentrations. 

How to cite: Grezio, A., Baglione, E., Selva, J., Tonini, R., Anzidei, M., and Vecchio, A.: Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments in Eastern Sicily (Italy) including sea level rise caused by climate change and local subduction effects. , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2852, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2852, 2022.

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