EGU22-3167
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3167
EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Impacts of climate change and urban heat island on mortality risk: summer average vs. extreme heat events

Wan Ting Katty Huang1, Gabriele Manoli1, Isobel Braithwaite2, Andrew Charlton-Perez3, Christophe Sarran4, and Ting Sun3
Wan Ting Katty Huang et al.
  • 1Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, UCL, London, United Kingdom
  • 2Institute of Health Informatics, UCL, London, United Kingdom
  • 3Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
  • 4Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom

Climate change is expected to increase heat-related mortality risks. However, mortality risks associated with cold weather, which can also occur during summertime, are expected to decrease. The overall impact of temperature changes on summer average risk may therefore evolve differently than the risk associated with heat extremes. A similar, though less pronounced, picture can also be painted for the impact of urban heat island on mortality risk. In two separate studies, we highlight the differing impacts of warming on summer mean versus extreme heat-related mortality risk. Factors such as the local climate and vulnerability to heat play a role in mediating the net summer average impact, while a clear enhancement of risk during extreme heat events is expected in association with both climate change and urban heat island effects. These findings provide a more comprehensive picture of the potential impact of climate change and urbanisation on summer temperature-related mortality risks, which may be relevant for adaptation and mitigation strategies.

How to cite: Huang, W. T. K., Manoli, G., Braithwaite, I., Charlton-Perez, A., Sarran, C., and Sun, T.: Impacts of climate change and urban heat island on mortality risk: summer average vs. extreme heat events, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3167, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3167, 2022.