Research on integrated modeling of a coupled regional water-food systems based on system dynamics

Water resources supply is closely related to food production and economy development. The importance of such a complex system is increasingly recognized in academia and policy. An integrated System Dynamics Model for the water-stressed Loudi city in Hunan Province, China, assessing water balance, and agricultural yield and revenue to 2050, is presented. Considering the uncertainty of future inflows, the formulation of water supply policies, and changes in cropping regimes, this study simulated multiple scenarios to better understand the impacts on water, food, and economic security and their interactions to highlight Loudi's realization of potential pathways to a more sustainable future. Current water resource over-exploitation can be mitigated while still allowing for agricultural development. While most simulations hinted at continued over-exploitation, some suggested that improvements can be achieved by altering parameters such as per-capita domestic water demand, per-capita industrial water demand and the cropping regime. Relevant policies should be considered in parallel to introduce redundancy into the policy framework. From initial results, it is hypothesized that by producing excess crops, a virtual water trading market can be developed, thereby further improving water balance, yield and revenue. This study used system dynamics as a powerful tool to explore complex, feedback-driven water-food systems, providing a viable framework for water resource management approaches and policies at the regional scale.