EGU22-3217, updated on 27 Mar 2022
EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research on integrated modeling of a coupled regional water-food systems based on system dynamics

Xinkui Wang1,2, Janez Susnik2, and Zengchuan Dong1
Xinkui Wang et al.
  • 1College of Hydrology and Water Resource, Hohai University, Nanjing, China (
  • 2Land and Water Management Department, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Delft, Nederlands (

Water resources supply is closely related to food production and economy development. The importance of such a complex system is increasingly recognized in academia and policy. An integrated System Dynamics Model for the water-stressed Loudi city in Hunan Province, China, assessing water balance, and agricultural yield and revenue to 2050, is presented. Considering the uncertainty of future inflows, the formulation of water supply policies, and changes in cropping regimes, this study simulated multiple scenarios to better understand the impacts on water, food, and economic security and their interactions to highlight Loudi's realization of potential pathways to a more sustainable future. Current water resource over-exploitation can be mitigated while still allowing for agricultural development. While most simulations hinted at continued over-exploitation, some suggested that improvements can be achieved by altering parameters such as per-capita domestic water demand, per-capita industrial water demand and the cropping regime. Relevant policies should be considered in parallel to introduce redundancy into the policy framework. From initial results, it is hypothesized that by producing excess crops, a virtual water trading market can be developed, thereby further improving water balance, yield and revenue. This study used system dynamics as a powerful tool to explore complex, feedback-driven water-food systems, providing a viable framework for water resource management approaches and policies at the regional scale.

How to cite: Wang, X., Susnik, J., and Dong, Z.: Research on integrated modeling of a coupled regional water-food systems based on system dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3217,, 2022.