Northwest Indian stalagmite shows evidence for recurring summer and winter droughts after 4.2 ka BP

We reconstructed changes in summer and winter precipitation using a well-dated (±18 years 2σ error) speleothem spanning 4.2-3.1 ka BP from Dharamjali Cave in the central Himalaya. The record was sampled at a sub-annual resolution for a suite of trace elements, as well oxygen and carbon stable isotopes. Calcium isotopes at decadal resolution provide additional hydroclimatic evidence. This DHAR-1 stalagmite records a 230-year period of increased drought frequency in both the summer and winter seasons after 4.2 ka BP, with aridity events centered on 4.19, 4.11 and 4.02 ka BP each lasting between 25 and 90 years. The data after 3.97 ka BP support a recovery in summer monsoon rainfall, peaking around 3.7 ka BP. The significance of this new record includes remarkable coherence between the moisture proxies over 4.2-3.97 ka BP in a well-dated record, which provides confidence in the duration of droughts and timing of monsoon recovery. It also places seasonal climate variability on a timescale relevant to human decision-making, which is particularly significant for this region nearby the Indus River Basin. The Indus Civilization reached its urban apex by 4.2 ka BP, and archaeologists have documented a shift in settlement locations, population, health, and agricultural strategies thereafter for a period of several centuries. This stalagmite record provides valuable insights into seasonal precipitation availability during a critical climatic and cultural transition phase.