Sea level rise along the coastline of Colombia: A vulnerability assessment

Abstract

In recent decades, the sea level has risen notably compared to the most recent millennia. This poses serious threats to environment and human population over the next century especially in coastal zones. Every region has climatic and non-climatic drivers of sea level rise which needs to be considered when adaptation and mitigation policies are implemented. We analyzed the coastal consequences of sea level rise along the Caribbean and Pacific coastlines of Colombia. Sea level rise projections published in August 2021 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the 6th assessment report were used in this study (IPCC, 2021). Five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for the 21^st century (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5. SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) were examined. Our results indicate a sea level rise of 1.04 m in the worst-case scenario (SSP5-8.5) which could cause land loss in an area of 2840.64 km². The area at risk will impact 12 departments or 86 municipalities with different social, environmental, economic, and cultural conditions that need to be considered when implementing mitigation policies. Our results illustrate how the projected sea level changes influence a variety of parameters such as area at the potential risk of inundation, land use of the affected area and general socio-economic impacts along the Caribbean and Pacific coastlines of Colombia.

 

Reference

IPCC (2021), Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press.