Permafrost Evolution on the British Isles during the Last Deglaciation.

Globally, near-surface permafrost is likely to warm, thin or disappear in many areas subject to future climate warming and wetting, creating a positive atmospheric feedback where the permafrost is rich in carbon. Unfortunately, substantial uncertainty exists as to the extent and timing of thawing in response to atmospheric forcing. Cryogenic cave carbonates (CCCs),  a recently described type of speleothem, precipitate when cave ice forms and thus provide opportunities to constrain periods when permafrost was present at a given cave site. Here, we present a unique dataset comprising 38 ²³⁰Th/U ages of CCCs from two caves in the Mendips, southwest England (51°N), and two caves in the Peak District, central England (53°N), all of which are currently ice-free. Whilst many ages are clean, reliable and high precision, the accuracy of those containing initial ²³⁰This improved greatly by constructing isochrons and applying further statistical methods.

The ages of CCCs reveal two distinct periods of isothermal permafrost conditions, peaking during i) the early Bølling–Allerød interstadial at approximately 14,463 ± 145 yBP* and ii) the late Younger Dryas around 11,719 ± 229 yBP. Such isothermal conditions (i.e., where values of mean annual ground temperature are commonly a fraction of a degree below 0°C and exist through much of the depth profile of permafrost) are thought to represent the later stages of permafrost warming prior to its disappearance. We attribute this isothermal, disequilibrium permafrost evolution during the last deglaciation of the British–Irish Ice Sheet to climatic variations linked to North Atlantic sea-ice extent and seasonality.

*years before 1950