Do Atlantic-European Weather Regimes Physically Exist?
- 1Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany (assaf.hochman@kit.edu)
- 2The Freddy and Nadine Hermann Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel (assaf.hochman@mail.huji.ac.il)
- 3Department of Earth Sciences and Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
- 4Department of Meteorology and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
The subseasonal variability of the extratropical large-scale atmospheric flow is characterized by recurrent or quasi-stationary circulation anomalies, termed weather regimes. Despite the usefulness of these regimes in numerous meteorological and socioeconomic applications, there is an ongoing debate as to whether they represent physical modes of the atmosphere, or are merely useful statistical categorizations. Here, we answer this question for wintertime Atlantic-European regimes. We argue that dynamical systems theory applied to a refined regime definition provides strong evidence in support of most weather regimes being physically meaningful. This finding underpins the broad relevance of weather regimes, for understanding the response of the atmosphere to external forcing, supporting subseasonal weather forecasting, and down scaling of climate projections.
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How to cite: Hochman, A., Messori, G., Quinitng, J., Pinto, J. G., and Grams, C.: Do Atlantic-European Weather Regimes Physically Exist?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4439, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4439, 2022.
