EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Future changes of average and extreme rainfall for the Bologna region

Rui Guo and Alberto Montanari
Rui Guo and Alberto Montanari
  • Department of Civil, Chemical, Environmental and Materials Engineering (DICAM), University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy (

Simulation of daily rainfall for the region of Bologna produced by 13 climate models for the period 1850 - 2100 are considered. Data are compared with the historical series of daily rainfall observed in Bologna for the period 1850 - 2014. In particular, we focus on annual rainfall data, seasonality and extremes to derive information on the future development of water resources availability and flood risk. The results prove that rainfall seasonality is fairly well simulated by models, while the historical sequence of annual rainfall is not satisfactorily reproduced. Future projections for different emission scenarios allow to assess the impact of climate change on cumulative rainfall and extremes, therefore outlining important technical indications.

How to cite: Guo, R. and Montanari, A.: Future changes of average and extreme rainfall for the Bologna region, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4704,, 2022.


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