EGU22-491, updated on 26 Mar 2022
EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Future changes of East Asian cyclones in the CMIP5 models

Jaeyeon Lee1, Jaeyoung Hwang1, Seok-Woo Son1, and John Gyakum2
Jaeyeon Lee et al.
  • 1School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (
  • 2Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Canada

Future changes of extratropical cyclones (ETCs) over East Asia are investigated using the models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). To quantify ETC frequency, intensity, and genesis changes in a warming climate, the objective tracking algorithm is applied to the CMIP5 models which provide 6-hourly wind data with no missing values in the high-terrain region. The historical simulations reasonably well capture the spatial distribution of ETC properties, except for noticeable biases in, and downstream of, the high-terrain regions. Such biases are particularly pronounced in the models with a coarse spatial resolution and a smooth topography which weakens lee cyclogenesis. The best five models, which show better performance for historical simulations than other models, are used to evaluate the possible changes of East Asian ETCs under the RCP8.5 scenario. These models project a reduced cyclogenesis in the leeward side of the Tibetan Plateau, and over East China Sea and western North Pacific in the late 21st century, resulting in a reduced ETC frequency from the east coast of China to the western North Pacific. The ETC intensity also shows a hint of weakening over the North Pacific. These ETC property changes are largely consistent with an enhanced static stability and a reduced vertical wind shear in a warming climate. This result indicates that the local baroclinicity, instead of increased moisture content, plays a critical role in determining the future changes of East Asian ETCs.

How to cite: Lee, J., Hwang, J., Son, S.-W., and Gyakum, J.: Future changes of East Asian cyclones in the CMIP5 models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-491,, 2022.

Comments on the display material

to access the discussion