EGU22-5034
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5034
EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Emulating spatially resolved annual maximum temperatures of Earth system models using MESMER-X 

Yann Quilcaille1, Lukas Gudmundsson1, Lea Beusch1,2,3, Mathias Hauser1, and Sonia Seneviratne1
Yann Quilcaille et al.
  • 1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
  • 2Center for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM), ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
  • 3MeteoSwiss, via ai Monti 146, 6605 Locarno-Monti, Switzerland

Emulators of Earth System Models (ESMs) are complementary to ESMs, in that they provide climate information with reduced computational costs. However, climate extremes, one of the most impactful consequences of climate change, remain challenging to emulate in all of their aspects. Here, we propose a method for the emulation of local annual maximum temperatures, with a focus on reproducing essential statistical properties and correlation in space and time. The Modular Earth System Model Emulator for Regional eXtremes (MESMER-X) is based on sampling from the generalized extreme value distribution and we show quantitatively that the resulting emulations of annual maximum temperature can reproduce the temporal evolution and spatial patterns of the underlying ESM simulations. Given the general design of the emulator and the good performances for annual maximum temperatures, the proposed methodology can be applied to other indicators of climate extremes, illustrated here with an indicator of fire weather.

How to cite: Quilcaille, Y., Gudmundsson, L., Beusch, L., Hauser, M., and Seneviratne, S.: Emulating spatially resolved annual maximum temperatures of Earth system models using MESMER-X , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5034, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5034, 2022.

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