Assessment and Validation of Daily Enlil and EUHFORIA Simulations During 2019–2021

The Heliospheric Expert Service Centre (H-ESC), part of ESA’s space weather service network, serves to provide existing heliophysics models for the provision of alerts and forecasts of space weather conditions at Earth and throughout the heliosphere. This is achieved by means of remote sensing and in-situ measurements of space weather transients, including Coronal Mass Ejections and high-speed solar wind streams, combined with advanced MHD modelling to predict their arrival times at points of interest in the heliosphere. Two such models include the European Heliospheric Forecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) and the ENLIL model operated by the UK Met Office, both of which are currently federated through the H-ESC portal. As a means to test both models, we perform daily runs of the EUHFORIA model using the same inputs (GONG magnetograms and CME cone-files) as the Met Office ENLIL simulations since the beginning of 2019, which are compared to real solar wind observations near Earth. We employ well-established model validation methodology by deriving contingency tables and the associated skill scores for both models as a means to assess their ability to make accurate space weather forecasts during this period of parallel operation.