Global lake evaporation responses to climate change

Global lake evaporation is a critical and continuous process that plays an important role in the earth’s water cycle. Accurate quantification of lake evaporation dynamics is crucial to understanding lake energy budgets, land-atmosphere interactions, as well as water availability. However, despite its importance, relatively few studies have investigated the impacts of climate change on global lake evaporation. In this study, we present global lake evaporation projections from 1901-2099 using an ensemble of lake-climate projections from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). Our results show that global lake evaporation will increase by the end of the 21st century with the largest changes occurring in tropical regions. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that lake evaporation extremes (90th percentile) are projected to occur more frequently, with greater changes detected at low latitudes. We anticipate lake evaporation increases to have severe impacts on the water budget, and therefore, on the availability of surface freshwater this century.