Environmental Change, Conflict and Human Migration in the Mediterranean: Challenges and Open Issues

Climate and environmental changes as drivers of human migration likely reach back to the rise and decline of ancient civilizations in the Mediterranean Basin. At present, there is evidence of such changes and their impacts to cause risks for human security in the Mediterranean region particularly in its southern and eastern rim countries. Discussions on the relationships between climate change, conflicts, and human migration include framing these as potential threat multipliers, e.g., climate change-induced water shortages, which will lead to food insecurity and may thereby intensify conflicts and ultimately internal and cross-border migration. Most accounts anticipate these threat multipliers to occur in countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change, lack adequate adaptive capacity, and be exposed to multiple socio-ecological stressors. Against the background of existing socio-political and armed conflicts in the Eastern and Southern Mediterranean, this risk deserves further scholarly attention. Inadequate or missing political instruments or agreements to deal with conflicts, insufficient cross-border collaboration, and limited links to international frameworks exacerbate the challenges faced by local communities in this region. These factors have likely contributed to the internal and cross-border migration of large groups of populations in war-torn countries in the Mediterranean Basin and elsewhere.

Despite strong evidence for links between climate change and its consequences for water, food, and economic security, there is still significant debate as to the relative importance of them for individual decisions to migrate. Equally contested are propositions addressing a possible direct causal relationship between climate change impacts or climate variability and violent conflict. In addressing these issues, it quickly becomes clear that the relationships between climate and environmental changes, conflicts, and human migration are multi-causal and are characterized by complex interactions and feedbacks. Key determinants likely include the social, political, cultural, and economic conditions of a specific country or region as well as their historical trajectory.

The Mediterranean Expert Group on Environmental and Climate Change (MedECC) has embarked on addressing these challenging issues through a Special Report that follows the First Mediterranean Assessment Report of MedECC (MAR1; 2019). Major issues to be addressed include:

(i) how can we identify current “hot spots” of climate change impacts and ongoing or emerging conflicts;

(ii) how can we shed light on understanding the roles of different determinants on internal and cross-border migration, particularly with regard to a) migration linked directly and/or indirectly to environmental change and conflicts, b) migration linked to other determinants, and c) understanding the relationships and interdependencies of different determinants;

(iii) what are major knowledge gaps and what approaches should be followed to address them?

While the “Task Force on Migration” of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East - Cyprus Climate Change Initiative has already discussed strategies and policy instruments to enhance adaptation to climate change, the MedECC Special Report will refine and complete such assessment by considering the links between climate change, conflicts, and migration based on existing adaptation measures.

This paper will provide background and rationale for the MedECC Special Report, its present state, and perspectives on its continued development.