Do politicians’ reelection incentives affect wildfires occurrence?

Previous studies have suggested that the behaviour of policymakers can be influenced either for personal gain or for electorate pleasing. However, politicians’ role and incentives in the determination of fire regimes have been largely ignored in research advocating for the adoption of effective fire adaptation and prevention strategies. In this context, understanding the drivers of wildfires is pivotal for developing and promoting effective fire prevention strategies. This empirical analysis investigates whether there is a significant change in wildfire occurrence around the gubernatorial election years and whether the change is consistent with the incumbent candidate running for re-election. To assess the impact of electoral cycles on wildfire occurrence, I estimate a Quasi-Maximum Likelihood (QML) Poisson fixed-effects model.