EGU22-5999, updated on 28 Mar 2022
EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

AMOC Early-Warning Signals in CMIP6

Lana Blaschke1, Maya Ben-Yami1,2, Niklas Boers1,2,3, and Da Nian1
Lana Blaschke et al.
  • 1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany (
  • 2Technical University of Munich, Germany; School of Engineering & Desin, Earth System Modelling
  • 3Department of Mathematics and Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, UK

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a vital part of the global climate that has been suggested to exhibit bi-stability. A collapse from its current strong state to the weak one would have significant consequences for the climate system. Early-warning signals (EWS) for such a transition have recently been found in observational fingerprints for the AMOC.

Some uncertainty in our understanding of the AMOC and its recent evolution is due to the varying quality of its representation in state-of-the-art models. In this work we examine the historical AMOC simulations in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) by analyzing the AMOC strength in the models both directly and through the sea-surface temperature fingerprint. As well as examining the evolution of these AMOC time-series in the models, we calculate their associated EWS and use these to evaluate the models in terms of their representation of the AMOC.

How to cite: Blaschke, L., Ben-Yami, M., Boers, N., and Nian, D.: AMOC Early-Warning Signals in CMIP6, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5999,, 2022.

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