Forensic disaster analysis of the 2021 summer floods in Western Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands – Findings from the PERC study

Severe flooding in Western Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands in July 2021, particularly along the rivers Erft, Ahr and Meuse rivers has led to more than 240 causalities and an estimated damage of 29,2 billion EUR in Germany alone. The high human and economic costs of the event brought systemic problems in the flood risk management system to light and raised questions about the limits of disaster risk management and climate change adaptation. Using a forensic disaster analysis approach, the Post Event Review Capability (PERC), we systematically analyse the strengths and weaknesses of the flood risk management systems in the affected regions, the emergency response and recovery to draw lessons for future disaster risk management and climate change adaptation strategies. For that, PERC synthesizes existing information about the event from the hydro-meteorological characteristics of the physical impact and combines it with qualitative interviews with first responders, flood risk managers and other directly affected stakeholders. We will present key findings from the PERC study on the 2021 floods including the main drivers behind the high casualties and potential shortcomings in the emergency response and recovery as well as recommendations and opportunities for improvement.