The role of a Mediterranean Sea eddy in the January 2020 flooding in Israel

On January 8, 2020, an extreme storm event took place in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, during which 100-130mm of rain fell in the northern part of Israel in one day. The heavy precipitation event resulted in seven deaths and damages to homes, vehicles, and infrastructure. At the same time, about 100km to the west of northern Israel, the sea was characterized by a mesoscale eddy with a warm core. In recent years, it was established that small-scale sea features affect the atmosphere above and synoptic-scale circulation patterns, including long-term rainfall. However, it is still unclear how these features may affect the propagation and intensity of individual storms, such as the January 8, 2020 storm event.

Recently, the WRF (The Weather Research and Forecasting) atmospheric model was coupled with the ocean model MITgcm (MIT general circulation model). The coupled model was named the SKRIPS (Scripps–KAUST Regional Integrated Prediction System) model. The two SKRIPS model components (WRF and MITgcm) are well tested at high resolutions, and the regionality of the coupled model allows us to isolate local features while maintaining the large-scale circulation as observed.

In this talk, I will present results from a high-resolution (~5km) coupled atmosphere-ocean regional simulation using the SKRIPS model performed during the January 8, 2020 event. The importance of the sea eddy in determining the storm intensity and propagation will be discussed, elaborating on the role of air-sea coupling and the model resolution. Understanding the effect of such small-scale sea features on extreme atmospheric events may improve their representation in weather and climate models, extending models prediction skill.