EGU22-6282, updated on 26 Jul 2023
EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Assessing research gaps in probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis

Joern Behrens1, Finn Løvholt2, Fatemeh Jalayer3, Stefano Lorito4, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez5, Mathilde Sørensen6, and the AGITHAR Team*
Joern Behrens et al.
  • 1Universität Hamburg, Numerical Methods in Geosciences, Dept. Mathematik, Hamburg, Germany (
  • 2NGI - Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, Oslo, Norway (
  • 3University of Naples Federico II, Naples, Italy (
  • 4Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy (
  • 5Centre Internacional de Metodes Numerics en Enginyeria (CIMNE), Barcelona, Spain (
  • 6University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway (
  • *A full list of authors appears at the end of the abstract

Probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis (PTHA/PTRA) is an emerging scientific discipline within the tsuanmi community and allows potentially to incorporate the diverse sources of uncertainty into disaster prevention, preparedness, and mitigation activities. While there are a number of successful applications of this paradigm, it is still an emerging field with a number of unresolved research questions. 

In a collaborative effort members of the COST Action AGITHAR assessed the existing research gaps for PTHA/PTRA and identified almost 50 different topics worth of further research. An ad hoc expert judgement was conducted to weight these open questions with respect to their expected impact on the quality of the PTHA/PTRA results and their difficulty to be answered. The results of this collaborative effort will be reported highlighting the most challenging and most severe research gaps.

The presentation is based on the following publication:
J. Behrens, F. Løvholt, F. Jalayer, et al. (2021): Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis – A Review of Research Gaps, Frontiers in Earth Science, 9:114, DOI:10.3389/feart.2021.628772.


S. Abadie, I. Aguirre-Ayerbe, I. Aniel-Quiroga, A. Babeyko, M. Baiguera, R. Basili, S. Belliazzi, A. Grezio, K. Johnson, S. Murphy, R. Paris, I. Rafliana, R. De Risi, T. Rossetto, J. Selva, M. Taroni, M. Del Zoppo, A. Armigliato, V. Bureš, P. Cech, C. Cecioni, P. Christodoulides, G. Davies, F. Dias, H.B. Bayraktar, M. González, M. Gritsevich, S. Guillas, C.B. Harbitz, U. Kânoǧlu, J. Macías, G.A. Papadopoulos, J. Polet, F. Romano, A. Salamon, A. Scala, M. Stepinac, D.R. Tappin, K.K. Thio, R. Tonini, I. Triantafyllou, T. Ulrich, E. Varini, M. Volpe, E. Vyhmeister

How to cite: Behrens, J., Løvholt, F., Jalayer, F., Lorito, S., Salgado-Gálvez, M. A., and Sørensen, M. and the AGITHAR Team: Assessing research gaps in probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6282,, 2022.