Preferred rossby waves and risks of synchronized heatwaves and harvest failures in observations and model projections
- 1Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, USA (kk3397@columbia.edu)
- 2Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, USA (kk3397@columbia.edu)
- 3Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany
- 4Humboldt University Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- 5Centre for Climate Systems Research, Columbia, New York, USA
- 6NASA GISS, Columbia University, New York, USA
- 7Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Concurrent weather extremes due to a meandering Jetstream can reduce crop productivity across multiple agricultural regions. However, future changes in associated synoptic climate patterns and their agricultural impacts remain unquantified. Here we investigate the ability of coupled climate crop model simulations to reproduce observed regional production impacts and production co-variabilities across major breadbasket regions of the world. We find that although climate models accurately reproduce atmospheric patterns, they underestimate associated surface anomalies in climate models and yield covariability in crop model simulations. Model estimates of future multiple breadbasket failures are therefore likely conservative, despite a projected future intensification of wave pattern-related extremes identified regionally. Our results suggest that climate risk assessments need to account for these high-impact but deeply-uncertain hazards.
How to cite: Kornhuber, K., Lesk, C., Schleussner, C., Jägermeyer, J., Pfleiderer, P., and Horton, R.: Preferred rossby waves and risks of synchronized heatwaves and harvest failures in observations and model projections, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6300, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6300, 2022.
