Linking surface Observables to sub-Volcanic plumbing-system:a multidisciplinary approach for Eruption forecasting at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy).

The Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) is one of the most dangerous volcanoes in Europe and is currently in a new phase (started in 2000 and still ongoing) of the unrest that has persisted intermittently for several decades (main crises occurred in 1950-52, 70-72 and 82-84). The current activity has prompted the Italian Civil Protection to move the Campi Flegrei volcano from the first (“base” or “green”) to the second (“warning” or “yellow”) level of alert since the end of 2012.

The geophysical and geochemical changes accompanying the unrest stimulated a number of scientific investigations that resulted in a remarkable production of articles over the last decade. However, large uncertainties still persist on the architecture of the caldera plumbing system as well as on the nature of the subsurface processes driving the current (and previous) unrest.

LOVE-CF is a 4-years project started in October 2020 and funded by INGV (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia), with the aim of improving our ability to forecast the behaviour of the Campi Flegrei caldera, through a multi-disciplinary approach based on a combination of volcanological, petrological, geochemical, seismological and geodetic observations, as well as experiments and numerical models. 

We present the project objectives and methods, and show obtained preliminary results. Particularly our investigation includes: 

• a) the integration of structural, volcanological and petrological data from representative past eruptions with results of decompression experiments and numerical models of conduit dynamics and dyke propagation;
• b) innovative geochemical (new redox gas species and CH₄isotopes), minero- petrological (alteration products) and seismic (fumarolic tremor) measurements at the crucial “Solfatara-Pisciarelli” hydrothermal site as well as geochemical characterization of submarine emissions in the area of “Secca delle Fumose” in the Gulf of Pozzuoli which has been poorly-explored so far;
• c) novel multi-dimensional statistical analysis of seismic, geochemical and geophysical records collected (both on land and offshore) in the last decades and in the recent period of unrest, constrained by geological observations and advanced numerical modelling;
• d) comprehensive analysis of surface deformations from historical data (since 35 BC) to modern techniques (both in-situ and remote sensing), and related modelling to disclose the active plumbing system and the relationship among the different sources of deformation throughout the decades and centuries.