EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Long-term climate prediction for Ireland and its surrounding

Stephen Ogungbenro, Catherine O'Beirne, and André Düsterhus
Stephen Ogungbenro et al.
  • Maynooth University, ICARUS, Geography Department, Co. Kildare, Ireland (

Ireland is bordering the North Atlantic, and its climate is dominated by its climate modes on short to longer timescales. The Atlantic low-pressure systems, Jetstream variabilities and airmasses are features of the atmospheric circulation, which also contribute to the climate this region.  So, a long-term climate prediction of Ireland is majorly controlled by the ocean, and by other atmospheric components.

The Ocean has shown good capabilities for decadal to multi-decadal climate predictions, hence, our study adapted a coupled model to investigate seasonal changes in the climate on annual to multi-annual timescales within the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM).  Initialized prediction is extended to multi-decadal timescale up onto twenty lead years, and we study prediction capabilities for common climate variables in and around , by identifying major drivers and documenting their prediction skills.  Our results have shown prediction skill for surface temperature over longer timescales, and we explore these capabilities for other variables of interest.  This study opens new opportunities for better long-term predictions of climate components in the region, and our results are relevant for strategic planning.

How to cite: Ogungbenro, S., O'Beirne, C., and Düsterhus, A.: Long-term climate prediction for Ireland and its surrounding, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6767,, 2022.