Hillslope failure due to stream undercutting: The 2021 flood event in the Ahr-valley and resulting mass movements – a multi-method approach

Exceptional rainfalls (up to 200 mm in 72 h) in W-Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium led to severe flooding on 14-15 July 2021. In Germany the Ahr valley (Eifel mountains) was hit heavily, leading to 134 fatalities and substantial loss of property and infrastructure. Besides the damage in the floodplains, multiple shallow landslides were triggered along the Ahr embankments. Furthermore, the flood caused undercutting of several old landslide bodies. One such landslide in Devonian Schist bedrock is located at a narrow, bended stretch of the Ahr, near the town of Müsch. A complete failure has the potential to dam the river posing a considerable hazard.

The main objectives of this study are to gain an in-depth understanding of the landslide causes and its transient activity. These objectives are tackled by a multi-method approach: landslide mapping, analysis of pre- and post-event airborne laser scanning (ALS) and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) data, electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), seismic refraction tomography (SRT), passive seismic monitoring, geotechnical analysis and interviews with local inhabitants.

The old landslide is 100 m wide and 200 m long. Preliminary analysis of ERT and SRT indicate a landslide depth of 20-30 m, leading to an overall landslide volume of 400,000 - 600,000 m³. ERT further shows underlying bedrock properties and water saturated zones. An old dumpsite as well as an ancient railway, now used as forest trail, cutting through the landslide horizontally are clearly shown as resistive zones. Analysis of ALS data shows that so far only the frontal part at the Ahr banks has been active and has lost about 6300 m³ due to fluvial erosion and landsliding. Field mapping shows clear signs of retrogressive landsliding. From October 2021 onwards the landslide body has been equipped with five geophones to record both subtle changes in ground rheology and discrete events of rock bridge failure due to incremental mass movement. Currently most seismic signals at the slope can be allocated to daily traffic and road construction in the area.

The combination of geophysical and remote sensing methods enables a profound insight into the mechanisms and present processes of the Müsch landslide. Based on this, we will be able to assess the probability for a reactivation of the whole landslide body, which could trigger cascading hazards affecting a much larger region. An improved monitoring concept will be developed which can be adopted to similar structures in the Ahr valley and beyond.