Changes in likelihood and intensity of spatially co-occurring hot, dry and wet extremes

The recent 2021 spring-to-summer season was characterized by co-occurrent hot, dry and extremely wet extremes around the globe, raising questions regarding changing likelihoods of such extreme years in a changing climate. To address this question, we assess the likelihood of spatially compounding hot, dry and wet extremes under historic and present climate as well as under different future warming levels. The occurrence-probability of spatially compounding events and area affected in future climates under scenarios at 1.5°C, 2°C and higher levels of global warming is determined using Earth System model simulations from the 6th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). As climate change impacts are particularly severe when spatially compounding events occur in multiple regions with high exposure of people or crops, this study focuses on densely inhabited regions and important agricultural areas.