EGU22-7289
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7289
EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Advancing compound modelling of tropical cyclone wind, surge and rain impacts – now and in a changing climate

Simona Meiler1,2, Ali Sarhadi3, Kerry Emanuel3, and David N. Bresch1,2
Simona Meiler et al.
  • 1ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Department of Environmental Systems Science, Zürich, Switzerland (simona.meiler@usys.ethz.ch)
  • 2Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Switzerland
  • 3Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA

Intense precipitation from tropical cyclones (TCs), typically accompanied by wind-driven storm surges and highly destructive winds, constitutes a significant threat for compound flooding and wind-driven impacts in many coastal regions worldwide. However, most present TC risk assessment methods only consider wind as the driving hazard and thus underestimate impacts emerging from compounding TC sub-hazards. Further, it is crucial to understand how this risk will shift and intensify in a warming climate. We thus present a coupled, physics-based modeling approach for the coastal area of Metropolitan Manila (PHL) to explicitly represent TC rainfall-induced freshwater flood, TC wind-driven storm surges, and direct impacts from TC wind for present and future climate. We use a large set of synthetic TCs generated from historical climate data (1985-2014) and from the late 21st century (2071-2100) SSP585 warming scenario to simulate TC wind fields and rainfall intensity data. Our modelling chain includes a hydrodynamical component to convert TC precipitation to freshwater flood and model wind-driven storm surges. We evaluate the compound socio-economic impacts from the TC sub-hazards using a state-of-the-art, open-source probabilistic damage model (CLIMADA). Ultimately, our advances in TC impact modelling can be applied in vulnerable coastal regions worldwide, enabling better-informed adaptation decisions and mitigation strategies.

How to cite: Meiler, S., Sarhadi, A., Emanuel, K., and Bresch, D. N.: Advancing compound modelling of tropical cyclone wind, surge and rain impacts – now and in a changing climate, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7289, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7289, 2022.

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