Communicating dimensions of vulnerability with respect to heat stress

Heat waves are one of the most often experienced impacts of climate change. In recent years, there has been a significant increase in heat extremes during the summer months. According to the German Weather Service (DWD), the three hottest summers in measured history were all in the 2000s: In Germany, the summers of 2003, 2018 and 2019.

The Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) funded project ZURES II – Application and continuation of future-oriented climate and vulnerability scenarios in selected instruments and planning processes – aims to apply methods for urban development targeting heat stress resilience to planning processes of the City of Ludwigsburg. By identifying and evaluating climate change and future changes in social vulnerability in the City of Ludwigsburg, it was possible to link the previously juxtaposed concerns of climate and social urban development. A constant dialogue with municipal representatives in Ludwigsburg resulted in the recognition of urban development plans as a key instrument to achieve an integrative perspective – considering the processes of changes in climate and urban society together.

The primary goal of the continuation phase is thus to strengthen urban resilience and adaptation to heat stress through an integrated planning framework with information on urban society and climate, and to overcome the isolated consideration of social and climatic aspects through transdisciplinary application research. This aim is to be achieved in dialogue with the city and citizen participation measures.

Communicating dimensions of vulnerability

The proposed contribution is an integrated approach of different communication strategies from both the observational (surveys on household and city level) and modelling perspective (urban climate map), examining urban planning processes, the efficacy of various strategies to reduce heat stress, and measures highlighting how the city of Ludwigsburg is already using science data and products from the research project ZURES that facilitate planning and policies on adaptation to heat stress. A special focus will be on the communication of different vulnerabilities and how the project addresses the fundamental question of what constitutes a meaningful basis of information for sustainable and resilient urban development, especially with regard to resilience to heat stress. Up to now, climate analyses and scenarios have often been used to determine risks and adaptation needs as a basis for information. However, this practice is not entirely innovative, as it is unlikely, for example, that the population in 2030 or 2050 will be the same as in 2019. Therefore, the ZURES project aims to develop small-scale vulnerability and risk assessments, which includes further development of climate modelling as well as advancing methodologically innovative scenario techniques to describe future vulnerability to heat stress.