EGU22-79, updated on 25 Mar 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-79
EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Assessing the impact of sea-level rise on future compound flooding hazards in the Kapuas River delta

Joko Sampurno1,4, Valentin Vallaeys1, Randy Ardianto2, and Emmanuel Hanert1,3
Joko Sampurno et al.
  • 1Earth and Life Institute (ELI), Environmental Sciences, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium (joko.sampurno@uclouvain.be)
  • 2Pontianak Maritime Meteorological Station, Pontianak, Indonesia
  • 3Institute of Mechanics, Materials and Civil Engineering (IMMC), Université Catholique de Louvain (UCLouvain), Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
  • 4Department of Physics, Fakultas MIPA, Universitas Tanjungpura, Pontianak, Indonesia

Compound flooding hazard in estuarine delta is increasing due to mean sea-level rise (SLR) as the impact of climate change. Decision-makers need future hazard analysis to mitigate the event and design adaptation strategies. However, to date, no future hazard analysis has been made for the Kapuas River delta, a low-lying area on the west coast of the island of Borneo, Indonesia. Therefore, this study aims to assess future compound flooding hazards under SLR over the delta, particularly in Pontianak (the densest urban area over the region). Here we consider three SLR scenarios due to climate change, i.e., low emission scenario (RCP2.6), medium emission scenario (RCP4.5), and high emission scenario (RCP8.5). We implement a machine-learning technique, i.e., the multiple linear regression (MLR) algorithm, to model the river water level dynamics within the city. We then predict future extreme river water levels due to interactions of river discharges, rainfalls, winds, and tides. Furthermore, we create flood maps with a likelihood of areas to be flooded in 100 years return period (1% annual exceedance probability) due to the expected sea-level rise. We find that the extreme 1% return water level for the study area in 2100 is increased from about 2.80 m (current flood frequency state) to 3.03 m (under the RCP2.6), to 3.13 m (under the RCP4.5), and 3.38 m (under the RCP8.5).

How to cite: Sampurno, J., Vallaeys, V., Ardianto, R., and Hanert, E.: Assessing the impact of sea-level rise on future compound flooding hazards in the Kapuas River delta, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-79, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-79, 2022.

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