Modeling of the CME on 2021 October 28

We present the evolution of the CME/flare event observed on 2021, October 28 . The GOES X1.1 class flare originated from the active region NOAA AR 2887, situated at the moment of eruption close to the central meridian. The full halo CME had also on disc signatures, i.e. the EIT wave and coronal dimming and was associated with the white light shock and the type II radio burst. The CME propagated with the projected line of the sight speed of about 1100 km/s and it seemed to be Earth directed.

However, only the associated shock wave was observed by the DSCOVR in-situ instruments, in the morning of October 31. The observations indicate that the CME’s propagation direction had a strong southward component, which induced only glancing blow and not a direct impact to Earth.

We reconstructed the CME, using SOHO/LASCO and STEREO/COR observations, and modeled it’s propagation in the inner heliosphere employing recently developed heliospheric model EUHFORIA (EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset, Pomoell & Poedts, 2018).  After accurately modeling the observed CME we also made the ensemble runs with EUHFORIA to study how the changes of the propagation direction of the CME influence its impact to Earth.

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