EGU22-8426
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8426
EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Earthquake nowcasting: Retrospective testing in Greece 2019 - 2021

Gerasimos Chouliaras1, Efthimios S. Skordas2, and Nikolaos Sarlis2
Gerasimos Chouliaras et al.
  • 1Institute of Geodynamics, National Observatory of Athens, P.O. Box 20048, Athens 118 10, Greece ( g.choul@noa.gr)
  • 2National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Section of Condensed Matter Physics and Solid Earth Physics Institute, Department of Physics, School of Science, Athens, Greece (eskordas@phys.uoa.gr, nsarlis@phys.uoa.gr)

Earthquake nowcasting [1] (EN) is a modern method to estimate seismic risk by evaluating the progress of the earthquake cycle in fault systems [2]. EN employs natural time [3], which uniquely estimates seismic risk by means of the earthquake potential score (EPS) [1,4] and has found many useful applications both regionally and globally [1, 2, 4-10]. Among these applications, here we focus on those in Greece since 2019 [2], by using the earthquake catalogue of the Institute of Geodynamics of the National Observatory of Athens[11–13] (NOA) for the estimation of the EPS in various locations: For example, the ML(NOA)=6.0 off-shore Southern Crete earthquake on 2 May 2020, the ML(NOA)=6.7 Samos earthquake on 30 October 2020, the ML(NOA)=6.0 Tyrnavos earthquake on 3 March 2021, the ML(NOA)=5.8 Arkalohorion Crete earthquake on 27 September 2021, the ML(NOA)=6.3 Sitia Crete earthquake on 12 October 2021. The results are promising and reveal that earthquake nowcast scores provide useful information on impending seismicity.

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How to cite: Chouliaras, G., Skordas, E. S., and Sarlis, N.: Earthquake nowcasting: Retrospective testing in Greece 2019 - 2021, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8426, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8426, 2022.