Potential redistribution of major staple crops buffer climate change impacts on agriculture in Africa

The geographical range of agricultural crops is shifting under climate change as crop potential either increase or decrease. In this study, we assess the shifts in crop suitability for six major staple crops (maize, sorghum, millet, rice, cassava and wheat) across Africa by 2050 to understand crop switching and/or diversification as adaptation to climate change. While we observe that climatic suitability for four of the six crops will decrease in Africa, our results show that considering crop replacement with a more suitable crop will maintain agricultural potential in West and East Africa. Millet production can replace many maize, sorghum, cassava and wheat producing areas while fewer areas can switch to maize or wheat by 2050. We therefore provide a new empirical approach that can be used for crop shifting analysis by providing estimates of the potential in new areas. We conclude that redistribution of major staple crops according to their potential significantly reduces climate change impacts, assuming that new crops can meet calorie demands. Therefore, if farmers will grow the most suitable crops in their locations and if production can be transported and exchanged through markets between most suitable areas for a crop to less suitable areas, then climate change impacts on agriculture and food security will be reduced.