EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Impact of Stratospheric Ozone on the Subseasonal Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere Spring

Jiyoung Oh1,2, Seok-Woo Son2, Jung Choi1, Eun-Pa Lim3, Chaim Carfinkel4, Harry Hendon3, Yoonjae Kim2, and Hyun-Suk Kang2
Jiyoung Oh et al.
  • 1Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental science, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (
  • 2Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Republic of Korea
  • 3Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
  • 4The Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew Univ. Israel

Antarctic ozone has been regarded as a major driver of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation change in the recent past. Here, we show that Antarctic ozone can also affect the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction during the SH spring. Its impact is quantified by conducting two reforecast experiments with the Global Seasonal Forecasting System 5 (GloSea5). Both reforecasts are initialized on September 1st of each year from 2004 to 2020 but with different stratospheric ozone: one with climatological ozone and the other with year to-year varying ozone. The reforecast with climatological ozone, which is common in the operational S2S prediction, shows the skill re-emergence in October after a couple of weeks of no prediction skill in the troposphere. This skill re-emergence, mostly due to the stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling, becomes stronger in the reforecast with year to-year varying ozone. The surface prediction skill also increases over Australia. This result  suggests that a more realistic stratospheric ozone could lead to improved S2S prediction in  the SH spring.

How to cite: Oh, J., Son, S.-W., Choi, J., Lim, E.-P., Carfinkel, C., Hendon, H., Kim, Y., and Kang, H.-S.: Impact of Stratospheric Ozone on the Subseasonal Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere Spring, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8995,, 2022.