Prediction of future sea-level rise in land suitability for mangrove rehabilitation and restoration in Indonesia
- 1Centre for Aquatic Environments, University of Brighton, Lewes Road, Brighton BN2 4GJ, UK.
- 2Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Science Research Group, Faculty of Earth Science and Technology, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung 40132, Indonesia.
- 3Department of Landscape Management, Estonian University of Life Sciences, Fr. R. Kreutzwaldi 1, 51014 Tartu, Estonia.
- 4Ecology Research Group, School of Life Sciences and Technology, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia.
- 5Hydrography Division, Faculty of Earth Science and Technology, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung 40132, Indonesia.
Mangroves have many benefits, both for humans and for the surrounding ecosystem. One of the most benefits from mangroves is that mangroves have coastal blue carbon reserves up to five times greater than the total carbon storage of temperate, taiga, and tropical forests. But recently, mangroves have decreased in extent by 20-35% due to both anthropogenic and naturogenic factors. One of the naturogenic factors that impact mangroves is sea-level rise. Mangroves cannot survive if sediment accumulation cannot keep pace with sea-level rise. This can result in mangrove death or zonal shifts in plant communities.
The decline in mangrove areas has resulted in increases in carbon emissions. This increase in carbon costs $US6-24 billion in economic damage annually. Indonesia experienced the highest increase in carbon dioxide emissions in the world in 1990-2010. Whereas in the Paris agreement, 2015, countries in the world including Indonesia have committed to reducing emissions by 29-41% by 2030. Therefore, rehabilitation and restoration of mangroves need to be undertaken, as well as identification of those mangroves most under threat.
The aim of this study is to model future sea-level rise and the impact of its exposure on land suitability for mangrove rehabilitation and restoration in Indonesia. This study uses the integration of remote sensing, statistical, and future climate model data combined with GIS methods to produce a sea-level rise model. This study also uses several scenarios both climate and temporal to predict sea-level rise.
The results of this study indicate that there are several areas that have high exposure caused by sea-level rise. This is exacerbated by low rates of sedimentation or land subsidence in some areas. In contrast, several other areas experienced high rates of accretion and thus are at less risk. Changes in rates of inundation caused by sea-level rise have caused some areas suitable for planting mangroves to become unsuitable. Therefore, if planting is carried out in the area now, it is very likely that the mangrove will be submerged by excessive tidal inundation and any rehabilitation and restoration carried out will fail.
This study is expected to be taken into consideration in driving new policy based on the results of the model. This study can also be used as a guide to consider which areas are suitable for mangrove rehabilitation and restoration without the threat of a sea-level rise in the future.
How to cite: Syahid, L. N., Ward, R. D., Sakti, A. D., Rosleine, D., Wikantika, K., and Windupranata, W.: Prediction of future sea-level rise in land suitability for mangrove rehabilitation and restoration in Indonesia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9058, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9058, 2022.