EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Radiation belt model including semi-annual variation and Solar driving (SENTINEL)

Sigiava Aminalragia-Giamini1,2, Christos Katsavrias1,2, Constantinos Papadimitriou1,2, Ioannis Daglis1,3, Ingmar Sandberg2, and Piers Jiggens4
Sigiava Aminalragia-Giamini et al.
  • 1National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece (
  • 2Space Applications and Research Consultancy (SPARC), Greece
  • 3Hellenic Space Center, Athens, Greece
  • 4ESA/ESTEC, Netherlands

The Earth’s outer radiation belt response to geospace disturbances is extremely variable spanning from a few hours to several months. In addition, the numerous physical mechanisms, which control this response, depend on the electron energy, the time-scale and the types of geospace disturbances. As a consequence, the various models that currently exist are either specialized, orbit-specific data-driven models, or sophisticated physics-based ones. In this paper we present a new approach for radiation belt modelling using Machine Learning methods driven solely by solar wind speed and pressure, Solar flux at 10.7 cm and the Russell-McPherron angle. We use Van Allen Probes data to train our model and show that it can successfully reproduce and predict the electron fluxes of the outer radiation belt in a broad energy (0.033–4.062 MeV) and L-shell (2.5–5.9) range and, moreover, it can capture the long-term modulation of the semi-annual variation. We also present validation studies of the model’s performance using data from other missions which are outside the spatio-temporal training regime such as the E>0.8 MeV electron flux measurements from GOES-15/EPEAD at geostationary orbit.

This work has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme "SafeSpace" under grant agreement No 870437 and from the European Space Agency under the "European Contribution to International Radiation Environment Near Earth (IRENE) Modelling System" activity under ESA Contract No 4000127282/19/NL/IB/gg.

How to cite: Aminalragia-Giamini, S., Katsavrias, C., Papadimitriou, C., Daglis, I., Sandberg, I., and Jiggens, P.: Radiation belt model including semi-annual variation and Solar driving (SENTINEL), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9577,, 2022.